Lately, if you’ve even glanced at the financial headlines, you’ve probably seen phrases like “historic IPO rally,” “retail investor gold rush,” or “India’s Nasdaq moment.” And honestly? They’re not exaggerating.
In the past year or so, the Indian stock market has become a launchpad — not just for legacy players like Tata Technologies, but also for new-age startups like Ola Electric, FirstCry, and even lesser-known SaaS or drone-tech firms most of us hadn’t heard of five years ago.
But here’s what’s keeping me up at night:
Are we truly entering a new era of innovation, or are we once again selling dreams wrapped in glossy pitch decks and DRHPs?
What the Numbers Are Telling Us?
Let’s ground this in data before getting carried away.
Roughly ₹1.8 lakh crore has been raised through IPOs in the last 12 months — a staggering figure by Indian standards.
Over 60 companies listed since mid-2024.
Nearly half of them, especially from the tech/startup world, are now trading below their listing price.
And we’ve seen an explosion in retail participation — millions of first-time investors trying their hand at IPOs via apps and social media tips.
That last point is where things get really interesting… and a bit risky.
The Smell of a Bubble — Let’s Not Pretend It’s Not There
I’m not saying everything’s overhyped, but let’s call a spade a spade.
- Exit Doors for VCs Are Wide Open
We’ve seen it before: VCs and early-stage investors use IPOs to offload shares — that’s not inherently wrong, but when 70–80% of the issue is offer-for-sale (OFS), the message is clear: they’re cashing out, not doubling down. - Creative Accounting Still Lives On
Despite regulatory efforts, some DRHPs feel more like carefully curated Instagram profiles — they show just enough good stuff to impress you, and hide the mess.
Sudden profits in FY24 after years of losses? Hmm.
Revenue spikes that turn out to be “other income”? Classic move. - Valuations That Need a Leap of Faith
Some companies are still being priced at 40–50x future earnings. Not current. Not next year. Future projections. That’s not investing — that’s storytelling.
But Wait — This Isn’t 2010 Either
Let’s not be cynics. There’s a real shift happening underneath the noise.
Today’s batch of IPOs isn’t just about flashy apps or hypergrowth slogans. Some of these companies are genuinely solving hard problems.
- Founders Are More Seasoned
We’re seeing second- and third-time founders, some with real operating experience. They’re not just building to raise the next round — they’ve seen cycles. - India’s Digital Infra Is Finally Bearing Fruit
UPI, Aadhaar, and ONDC have laid the pipes — now startups are building real businesses on top. Not just user bases, but sustainable models. - Emerging Sectors Are Legit
Clean energy, defense tech, EV infrastructure — these aren’t fads. They’re critical areas where India has both demand and policy tailwinds.
A Few Real Examples (Because Everyone Loves a Table)
Company Good Not-so-Good Verdict
- Tata Tech Steady growth, clear value Nothing major 👍 Safe pick
- Ola Electric EV hype, govt support Operational issues, cash burn 🤷♂️ Watchlist
- FirstCry Brand presence Thin margins, big OFS ⚠️ Mixed bag
- ideaForge High-tech IP, niche space Valuation too high 🤖 Long-term
- Go Digit Insurance play Weak fundamentals 👎 Avoid for now
Retail Investors: Smarter, But Still Vulnerable
It’s great to see more young Indians talking about DRHPs and listing gains. But let’s be real — a lot of people still:
- Jump in based on Twitter threads and YouTube hype.
Confuse “oversubscription” with “value.”
Chase IPOs like scratch cards.
That’s not how wealth is built. That’s just gambling in a fancier outfit.
SEBI’s Playing Catch-Up (And Doing a Decent Job)
To be fair, SEBI isn’t sleeping on this. They’ve tightened norms:
- Promoter lock-ins are longer.
- OFS scrutiny is up.
- Pricing justifications are being demanded more aggressively.
But with the speed at which startups move, regulators will always be one step behind. That’s just the nature of the beast.
The Real Danger? Public Market Execution
You know what scares me the most?
Not that companies are overvalued.
Not even that VCs are exiting.
It’s that many of these businesses haven’t operated under public scrutiny before. When you list, everything changes. Investors want quarterly numbers, clean governance, and boring predictability — not just vision slides and “next billion users” pitches.
Going from startup mode to listed company is like switching from a sprint to a marathon, and some founders simply won’t make that transition.
So… Are We in a Bubble?
Not exactly. But we are in a moment — and moments can go either way.
This feels like a fork in the road. If we stay disciplined — both as investors and entrepreneurs — this could be the foundation for India’s long-term innovation economy.
But if we let FOMO, storytelling, and liquidity drive the bus, we’re heading straight into another 2008/2021-style hangover.
Final Thoughts
Here’s my take:
IPOs are mirrors. They reflect who we are — as a market, as a country, and as investors.
Some mirrors flatter you.
Some show your flaws.
And some, like this IPO frenzy, demand you take a good hard look at what you’re really betting on.
Are you investing in the next TCS? Or just funding a well-packaged exit?
Choose wisely.